A Glimpse of Future War among Great Powers

[A propos of Hiroshima’s 75th anniversary)]

Guest Article

By

William S. Lind

Several weeks ago, the world got a glimpse of what future war will look like among Great Powers. The weapons were rocks and clubs.
Indian and Chinese troops battled each other over worthless ground along their undefined border high in the Himalayas. It was a classic case of two bald men fighting over a comb. But at least 20 Indian soldiers died, along with an unknown number of Chinese.
What is interesting about this skirmish is the weapons employed. Both India and China have sizable arsenals of modern weapons. They employed none of them. Instead, they fought with rocks and clubs.
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It is probably true that neither India nor China wants a war at this point. But what limited both countries’ soldiers to the weapons of cavemen was something with general import: so terrifying is the prospect of nuclear war to anyone threatened with it that governments are willing, even eager, to go to seemingly ridiculous lengths to prevent it.
Prevention begins with avoiding the escalatory ladder. And that is what led to a fight with rocks and clubs. Both countries rightly feared that if they went to the weapons of, let’s say Sung dynasty China or Moghul India, they would set foot on that ladder. So rocks and clubs it had to be. Even a battle with those so alarmed Beijing and New Delhi that they quickly sought to settle the dispute diplomatically. Many weapons have claimed the title of “the Peacemaker”, but nuclear weapons actually deserve it.
This offers us a look at what war between other nuclear powers, let’s say the U.S. and China, might be like. The driving consideration for both countries’ leadership would be avoiding escalation. Since any confrontation would probably be a sea and air war, it might look something like the Cod Wars between Britain and Iceland. Ships might ram each other (not too hard). Water cannon might be employed. Chinese sailors might throw bao at American crews, who would volley back hamburgers in return (the Americans would end up with the better lunch). Fighter aircraft might engage, at least to the point of seeing who was better at staying on the other guy’s six. Would they shoot? If they did, both capitals would be frantic, trying to de-escalate.
Since both countries now have obesity problems among their youth, my proposal for an escalation-safe war would be vast eating and drinking matches between their respective ships’ and aircrafts’ crews. Just imagine what the Navy PFT might look like! It would do wonders for qualifying recruits. Join the Navy and become the world!
The really funny thing here is that both the U.S. and China are spending vast sums buying weapons and generating forces for a conventional war. That is not going to happen, barring outright insanity in both capitals at the same time. Unless the inmates are running the asylum, both countries will seek to de-escalate rapidly from any accidental clash that might occur (things can happen; remember the War of Jenkins’ Ear). Rules of engagement would quickly be established that would take both sides back to rocks and clubs, as India and China had already done.
The fact is, the whole China Scare is a sham, at least as far as a shooting war is concerned (our economic conflict is real, as President Trump understands). It’s one more con job on the American people, intended to keep the Military-Industrial-Congressional complex rolling in dough. When the massive defense budget cuts hit, which they soon will, remember my suggestion; let both countries’ navies roll in real dough. That we may still be able to afford.

* William S. (”Bill”) Lind is the author of the Maneuver War Handbook (1985) and the 4thGeneration Warfare Handbook (2011) as several other volumes that deal with war. This article was originally published on traditionalRight on 8 July.2020.

A Real Heroine

(GERMANY OUT) German Democratic Republic – nudist beach and camping groung at Motzener Lake – 10.07.1989 (Photo by Klöppel/ullstein bild via Getty Images)

Today I want to tell you about a heroine. Not of the kind who, in the movies, on TV, and in countless computer games keeps slaughtering hundreds of wicked males each and every one of whom is considerably bigger and has far more muscle than she does. And not of the kind who raids tombs, dives to the bottom of the ocean, explores far-away galaxies, and does any number of things men, often many men, have started doing long before. But of a real heroine of an entirely different kind.

 

Let us call her Ms. X. She is an Israeli and in her forties. She has black hair, likes to put on makeup, and wears high-heeled shoes. The reason why I heard of her was because she was teaching my sixteen-year old grandson, Orr, literature. Not that she could not make her living in any other way, as is often the case with teachers. But because she loved the written word and wanted to share her love with her students. To do so she left her job as a chief nurse, took a B.A, and spent another year earning her teaching license.

 

Those who had the privilege of working with her could see how seriously she took her job. Carefully studying every poem and every poet on the curriculum. Proceeding slowly and methodically, with the result that she often fell behind the schedule dictated by the Authorities. Rarely did she miss a class; nor did she neglect to read the students’ papers and exams even when she was ill. The kind of teacher every principal would like to have in his or her school and every student should welcome.

 

One day the class was discussing a poem. It had been written by an elderly Yekkeh, which in Hebrew means an immigrant from Germany. In it, the poet expressed his longing for the days, long ago, when he and his mother used to go swimming in one of that country’s countless beautiful lakes. Just as their creator had made them, without any clothes on. And without any fear of not keeping their distance or touching each other in a way that was either affectionate or playful. For X, following the instructions she had been given by her superiors, this was an opportunity to speak about mother-son relationships and all kinds of Freudian complexes. And sex, of course. Bad sex. Incestuous sex. Sex of the sort that had sent those wicked Germans on their way to perpetrating the Holocaust.

 

Now it so happens that Orr has been visiting Germany practically every year since he was one and a half years old. Each time he did we, his grandparents, took him to swim in the lakes. Just as we happened to feel like, either with or without bathing suits. He and we oldies must have done it hundreds of times. As did countless others, male and female, big and small, at whom we occasionally took a peek and who occasionally took a peek at us in return. As a result, Orr was in a position to correct his teacher. In Germany, he told the class politely but firmly, bathing (and taking a mixed sauna) in the buff was a perfectly normal thing to do. There was nothing sexual about it at all.

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For those of my readers who are not familiar with German culture and history, let me explain. Nudism is a German/Scandinavian invention dating back to the 1890s. The objective was to escape the overcrowded, often polluted, rapidly expanding, cities, by returning to nature. From this point on nudism, known in Germany as Frei Korper Kultur (free-body culture), went on to develop a long history the details of which I’ll spare you here. Suffice it to say that, far from being sexual, a deliberate effort is made to keep sex out of it—or else the outcome would be a mass orgy, which it is not.

 

Some governments, e.g that of the Christian Democrats in the 1950s, tried to suppress nudism. Others tolerated it or even welcomed it. Some sent in the goons to beat up all the nudes they could find. Both the Nazis and the East German Communists initially adopted this strategy. Only to conclude that, since they could not lick the movement, they’d better join it instead. The Nazis because they glorified the nude Arian body, that of little nude Arian girls specifically included. The East Germans Communists, because going nude was one of the few pleasures people could be allowed to enjoy without endangering the regime.

 

To return to X, she listened patiently to what Orr had to say. That in itself is not something every teacher does. When the class was over she went to the principal and told her what she had learnt. To wit, that everything she had been teaching her students over many years was, not to put it too politely, bull. The kind of bull critics love to invent and educators, to feed their hapless victims with. The matter reached the Ministry of Education. X insisted that she be allowed to tell her students the truth: namely, that the poem was not about the mother’s sexy body but the pleasure of stripping naked and swimming in a lake in the midst of nature.

 

She told the geniuses at the Ministry that she wanted to teach the poem the way its author had intended. They refused. Whereupon she resigned.

 

End of the story.

Credo

Slavery and Imperialism

Bad as African slavery was, it was not genocide.

(A propos of Prof. David Starkey who, for saying as much, was thrown out of Cambridge University)

Bad as imperialism and colonialism were, they were not responsible for hopeless backwardness of many former colonies.

Racism

Bad as racism is, it is not responsible for the fact that races exist.

Bad as white Americans are, they are not responsible for the fact that so many American blacks kill each other.

Men and Women

Bad as men are, they are not responsible for women’s weakness, vulnerability, and need for protection.

Bad as rape is, it is not the worst thing that can happen to a person.

(The worst, I think, is losing one’s children; but then feminists of all kinds are too self-centered to realize this).

Family and Abortion

Bad as some families are, they are not as bad as not having one at all.

Bad as abortion is, it is not as bad as forcing a child to be born against its parents’ will.

Children

Bad as children sometimes are, they are not responsible for the evils of the world.

Independent as some children are, they can not make do without a mother, preferably a full-time one who is always there for them.

Crime and Punishment

Bad as punishment is, it is not as bad as a society in which there are no punishments.

Bad as some crimes are, they are not as bad as capital punishment is.

Politics and Government

Bad as certain governments are, they are not as bad as the absence of government.

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Bad as democracy is, it is not as bad as all other forms of government.

Young and Old

Bad as the old may be, often it is not as bad as the new.

Bad as gerontocracy may be, often it is not as bad as government by the young.

Inequality and Capitalism

Bad as inequality is, it is not as bad as enforced equality.

Bad as capitalism sometimes is, it is not as bad as communism.

Union and Disunion

Bad as many walls are, they are not as bad as the bloodshed they sometimes prevent.

Bad as disunity is, it is not as bad as a zillion people shouting Heil in unison.

 

Germans and Nazis

Bad as the Germans in 1933-45 were, “exterminative anti-Semitism” was not widespread among them.

Bad as the guards at concentration camps were, they were not very different from most other people.

History and Memorial

Bad as history is as a method for looking into the future, it is not as bad as all the rest.

Bad as pulling down old monuments is, it is not as bad as the killing that will invariably follow.

Freedom and Tyranny

Bad as war is, it is not as bad as the denial of freedom.

Bad as many utterances are, they are not as bad as denying people the right to make them.

Perspectives

If you don’t think most of what I’ve been saying is true most of the time, then there is no hope for you. Go and drown yourself in the nearest river.

Guest article: Old, Older, too Old

By

Kobi Haron*

Queen Elizabeth I is generally regarded as a very successful monarch, one of the best. For many years she did very well, making few mistakes. But after 1590, following the defeat of the Spanish Armada, when she was already 57, her reign changed for the worse. Here is what Wikipedia has to say about her:

The conflicts with Spain and in Ireland dragged on, the tax burden grew heavier, and the economy was hit by poor harvests and the cost of war. Prices rose and the standard of living fell. During this time, repression of Catholics intensified, and Elizabeth authorized commissions in 1591 to interrogate and monitor Catholic householders. To maintain the illusion of peace and prosperity, she increasingly relied on internal spies and propaganda. In her last years, mounting criticism reflected a decline in the public’s affection for her.

It could be bad luck, or perhaps, after 32 years on the throne, she was simply bored. Maybe it was her age.

In 1951 Churchill started his second premiership. Again see the account at Wikipedia:

Churchill was nearly 77 when he took office and was not in good health following several minor strokes. By December, George VI had become concerned about Churchill’s decline and intended asking him to stand down in favor of Eden, but the King had his own serious health issues and died on 6 February without making the request. Churchill developed a close friendship with Elizabeth II. It was widely expected that he would retire after her Coronation in May 1953 but, after Eden became seriously ill, Churchill increased his own responsibilities by taking over at the Foreign Office. Eden was incapacitated until the end of the year and was never completely well again.

On the evening of 23 June 1953, Churchill suffered a serious stroke and became partially paralyzed down one side. Had Eden been well, Churchill’s premiership would most likely have been over. The matter was kept secret and Churchill went home to Chartwell to recuperate. He had fully recovered by November. He soldiered on through 1954 until, finally accepting his decline, he retired as prime minister in April 1955 and was succeeded by Eden.

So a prime minister starts his premiership at age 77 while he is seriously ill, but he doesn’t resign because his second in command, who is merely 54, is also very ill. Of course this is just an example of situations which are quite common.

In the US Supreme court two of the justices, Ruth Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer are over 80 and Justice Clarence is 71. Ginsburg has been ill since 1999. Supposedly she hardly missed a session at the Supreme Court, but one wonders if a healthier justice might do a better job.
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At the US senate there are 23 senators who are 80 and 70 years old. The median age of the US senate is close to 67. In other words, half of US senators would not get a job in most US companies because they are too old.

These days people speak about “ageism,” and mentioning a candidate’s age is politically incorrect. But in fact this is most relevant because any number of studies show that people decline with age. It’s true that a mature person will do better in certain situations. I can readily believe that a 50 years old senator may be better than a 30 years old senator. But most probably an 80 years old senator will not be better than a 50 years old senator.

In most countries the mandatory retirement age is between 60 and 70 years. In most US states judges retire between 70 and 75. Some US companies have mandatory retirement rules, and a few of them allow employees, including CEOs, to work after reaching 70. Most of them retire earlier, between 60 and 67, mainly because shareholders do not like CEOs who are too old.

There’s one more reason to restrict retirement ages. One wants younger people to take charge earlier as this is a way to do things in a better way. All organizations need change because after some time people tend to repeat their usual shticks rather than try a different approach.

At present people live longer than they used to. Life expectancy in the US is close to 80 and in other countries it may reach 84 or more. So we have older people as members of parliament, senators and presidents. There is no reason to believe that these old timers are more competent than they used to be in the past.

In many countries there are no restrictions for the retirement of presidents, prime ministers, senators, congressmen, members of parliaments etc. In many cases they are still at it at age 70 and 80. There’s only one reason for this: they can. As we have seen in the case of Churchill and others, this is to be avoided. The best method would be to have one rule for all public employees, including elected officials, to retire at the same age of 65 or 67.

This may be unfair to some people who could still be active at such ages. The answer to this is: start your own business. You can teach, give speeches, see your private patients, study at the university or write your biography. In Israel judges retire at age 70, and then some of them do well as arbitrators.

And how about the upcoming U.S presidential elections? Both candidates are too old for the difficult and demanding jobs that face them; one can only hope they will survive the ordeal. At age 80 one in six people are afflicted with dementia.

* Mr. Kobi Haron is an Israeli software developer who has worked both in Israel and in the US. 70 years old, he is retired and lives in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv.

On Footnotes

As all of you who have taken a look at this website, even the most causal one, will know, throughout my adult life I have been a scholar. And the one thing that is most characteristic of a scholarly text, as opposed to one that is not so, is the use of footnotes. I well remember the first time, in late 1965 or early 1966, when I was required to submit a seminar paper. My teachers made me look upon footnotes as if they were the gates to paradise. Nor, as I learnt both at the time and later, when I became a teacher myself, was I by any means the only one to see them in this way.

As a young student of the humanities, you learn is that footnotes are very important even though, to say the truth, not many people bother to read them. As a young student of the social sciences you also learn that footnotes are very important even though the kind of footnotes you are expected to put into your work is somewhat different. The difference is that historians care who wrote the sources they cite, where, when, and why. Social scientists often don’t. For them, (John Nobody, 2020) is no different from (Adam Smith, 1776). Nor does it matter whether the source they are quoting is (Aristotle, 350 B.C) or (Aristotle, 1999). Some of them, I suspect, do not even know that by the time the latest edition of his work came out its author had been dead for some twenty-three centuries.

What both disciplines have in common is that they use footnotes to certify that a given piece of work is, in fact, “scientific.” The more footnotes you have, the more “scientific” your work. I’ve also noticed that, the less is known about a subject or period, the larger the number of footnotes that attend the text dealing with them. I too, peppered my books with footnotes. Like many other young students I used to count them with considerable pride. Not only did I want to see how many I had, but I also wanted to know how many there were per page.

The best footnotes contain material that is “unpublished” or “archival.” Accordingly I loved writing things like “Captain von und zu Verschwind to Lieutenant Colonel Suchmir, 6.8.1941, OKH [Oberkommando des Heeres]/Genst.d.H [Generalstab des Heeres] /Org.Abt. [Organisationsabteilung] II, Nr. 10962/41, Gkds [Geheime Kommandosache], GMR [German Military Records] T-706/0001131.” Looking back, heaven knows where I found the patience. Before computers came to the rescue, each time you typed in a mistake you have to re-do the entire page.

Technology and War was the first of my books that did not have any footnotes. In part, this was because I wrote it on my new Apple IIe—which, since it did not have an automatic re-numbering command, turned the task of revision into a nightmare. In part, it was because the subject was too large. For each sentence it would have been possible to come up not with one reference but with twenty. As with the mythological hydra, each source only pointed the way to many others. Had I read everything available on the subject, the project would still have been going on today, thirty years after the book was published. As I said, instead of always searching for new sources my difficulty was how to decide which ninety percent of the available ones not to read.

Yet the above difficulties only formed part of the story and not necessarily the most important one. Years ago, in class, somebody who may have been a follower of Popper said that the purpose of studying history was to disprove myths. I answered that, in my opinion, that was wrong. To be sure, disproving myths is a fine occupation for young historians eager to hone their skills and make a name for themselves. In fact one of my own earliest published articles carried the subtitle, “the destruction of a legend.” But mature scholars should aim higher. Much higher. Instead of disproving myths others have created, they should try to produce work so good as to become myths. As, to provide just one example, Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire did.

This line of thought explains why, at the age of forty-something. I was developing an obsession—one which, in retrospect, seems almost megalomaniac—with my books’ ability to withstand the proverbial hand of time. To the point where, dedicating Technology to Dvora, I did so eis aeona. To obtain an idea of how it was done, I spent considerable time and energy looking at some famous books and analyzing them for “eternality.” Not surprisingly, the precise nature of the latter quality escaped me then and continues to escape me today.

However, I did make some interesting discoveries. The most important one was that hardly any of them had footnotes. Thucydides has no footnotes. To pile insult on injury, he says that the speeches, which many think are the best part of his entire work, are for the most part pure invention. That should certainly make some of us reflect on the nature of historical writing. Polybius, Sallust, Caesar, Tacitus and Josephus do not have footnotes either. Nor do Augustine, Machiavelli, Locke, Voltaire, Rousseau, Carlyle, John Stuart Mill, Darwin, and, in my own field, Clausewitz. To say nothing of Nietzsche; he would have laughed at the idea. And Heine poked fun at it.

Probably the reason why these and so many others dispensed with footnotes was because they were not modern academics. Not being modern academics, they did not try to be “scientific.” They did not have to compete for tenure by having their work evaluated by a committee. One whose members, instead of reading it, count (or rather, since the actual counting is done elsewhere, take note of), the number of times it is mentioned in “scientific” journals. Leonard Huizinga, who was a modern academic, in the introduction to Homo Ludens warns the reader not to expect documentation for every word. Another very good contemporary example is Humphrey Kitto’s The Greeks (1951). As unassuming little volume, so good is it that it sold over 1,500,000 copies. In the military field there is Michael Howard’s War in European History. A real tour de force that, in my view, puts all his other, far bulkier, works in the shade.

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To repeat, normally the very best books are those that do not have footnotes. Nor would such a book be at all improved if it were provided with them. Imagine the Bible sprinkled with brackets, or little numbers, or a variety of other signs who exact meaning is known only to a handful of experts. Each one reminding the reader that this or that fact or idea had come, not straight out of God’s mouth but from such and such a source; or else adding some kind of information that did not seem to worthy of being included in the text itself.

I, too, hoped to write such a book. If not one that would last forever, which I early on realized is beyond my powers, than at any rate one that would fuse the argument and the evidence on which it rests so tightly that, like a creeper on an oak tree, they would become indistinguishable. Not to put too fine a point on it, I wanted what I wrote to be so good as to be almost self-evident. As, to adduce just one more example, Confucius’ Analects are. Agreement was to be achieved by persuasion, not by piling on authorities many of whom would owe their presence on my pages precisely to their obscurity.

This was the guiding idea behind my best-known volume, The Transformation of War. Needless to say, its lack of footnotes did not pass unnoticed. One reviewer greeted Transformation as follows: “A tremendous challenge with van Creveld’s text is discerning where the bulk of his information comes from. His book lacks traditional citations of outside resources and he merely relies on direct quotes, inferences, but never on annotations accepted through APA, MLA or Chicago-Turabian style guides.” Here I must confess that, until I wrote the present essay, I did not even know that such a thing as “Turabian” existed. Mea culpa.

Since then I have written several other footnote-less books. Some better, some worse, but none that contained enough “eternality” to satisfy me. More than once I compromised and put in a bibliographical list—always at my editors’ insistence, never out of my own free will. In each case, perusing the book in question a few years later, I was struck by how antiquated, how irrelevant, the lists appeared. Had the books been re-issued, I would have deleted them. Who the devil cares?

And why bring up this entire topic right now? Because, over the last few years, I’ve been slowly moving towards the writing of fiction. My first attempt in this direction was Hitler in Hell (2017). Not, I repeat not, that I invented the facts with which it is crammed out of thin air. The book, if I may say so, is as well researched as any I have ever written; the paragraphs dealing with post-1945 developments, as Hitler observes them from hell, apart, everything in it is “real” or “true.” And can be “verified.” But in that I decided to try and adopt Hitler’s own point of view as far as possible; an approach which, right from the beginning, ruled out not just footnotes but any pretense at “real” scholarship. For me the book was fun to write—which, in the end, is all that matters.

When I say fun, what I mean is a kind of freedom scholars, owing to their self-imposed limitations, do not normally enjoy. Freedom to think and talk and write outside the box, as the saying goes. Freedom to use one’s imagination in somewhat different ways, and to a different extent, from that to which I have been accustomed throughout my life. Now that I think of it I find it hard to define the kind of freedom I am referring to with any precision. All I know is that I enjoy it and will never give it up again.

So what comes next? I am just working on the final draft of another volume, The Gender Dialogues. 40,000 works long, it is the record of an imaginary debate with a young, highly intelligent, female journalist. She really exists, and her questions gave me the push I needed; however, they and my answers to them only account for a small part of the material. And I am thinking about doing another book like Hitler in Hell. This time the title is going to be I, Stalin. Pinched, of course, from Robert Graves’ masterpiece, I Claudius; but much, much closer to reality.

If I were to provide some advice to young historians, it would go as follows. First, don’t throw away the baby with the bath water; ere you dispense with footnotes as well as other academic tools, make sure you have thoroughly mastered them. Second, however preposterous it may sound, do aim at eternality; even though your chances of attaining it are practically zero. In other words, do the very best you can. And third, enjoy yourself. Partly because, if you don’t, you are unlikely to come up with something others will enjoy as well; and partly because, in that case, what’s the point at all?