Months after the Ukrainian crisis broke out, the long-expected Russian invasion of that country still had not taken place. Depending on which analyst you choose, there are many possible explanations for this. The first was that, at a time when his dear ally Xi was doing whatever he could to make a success of the winter games in Beijing, Putin did not want to ruffle his feathers too much. The second, that he needed time to try and sow dissension among his opponents, not all of whom were equally enthusiastic about fighting him; as, for example, became clear when Germany refused to provide Ukraine with weapons. The third, that his preparations were insufficient and needed to be completed. The fourth, that the weather, with the spring muddy season (rasputitsa, as it is called) around the corner, was unsuitable. It might, indeed, play havoc; if not with Putin’s tanks then with the follow-up columns that carry the ammunition they fire, the fuel they need, the spare parts on which they depend, and so on.
The fifth, explanation is that he was deterred by NATO’s declarations and demonstrations of support for Ukraine; including, in particular, the threat of sanctions. The sixth, that military action would be unpopular with Russia’s own people who are unhappy with the way things are going. The seventh, which seems to be gathering favor, that he has maneuvered himself into a pickle and is increasingly desperate to find a way out of the adventure on which he embarked. One, which, even if it succeeds, is quite likely to involve his country in a long and costly war against desperate resistance. And which, if it fails, may bring about not only the fall of his own rule but the disintegration of Russia itself; considering that, out of its population of about 145.000,000 18 percent consists of minorities some of which are just waiting for an opportunity to break free.
No more than any of the analysts whose views I keep reading do I have an answer to the question. I do, however, think I know the point when all of us in Washington, in London, in Paris, in Berlin, in NATO’s remaining capitals, and in many other places should really get worried. Namely, when Putin’s tanks start moving: not forward towards their Ukrainian objectives but away from them, back towards their peacetime bases and depots.
Consider:
Thursday, 2 August 1990. Saddam Hussein’s army invades and occupies Kuwait. Not, however before some days had passed during which he or his assistants claimed to be preparing to withdraw Iraq’s forces from the border area where he had deployed them. Needless to say, each time he did so the news was flashed around the world. Needless to say, each time it was received with a deep sigh of relief. And needless to say, each time it was false.
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Saturday, 6 October 1973. In the midst of Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar, all over Israel the air alert sirens start howling. This quickly turns out to be the signal for a combined offensive by several hundreds of thousands Egyptian and Syrian troops against Israel. Repeatedly during the previous months, the Egyptian army in particular had been holding exercises that they could have used as cover for starting a war. Repeatedly they did not—until, on the day in question, they did.
Wednesday, 21 August 1968. Warsaw Pact forces, including Soviet, East German, Polish and Hungarian units, invade Czechoslovakia. Meeting hardly any resistance, they quickly occupy the country. The crisis, which followed on what was known as the Prague Spring, had been going on for months. It climaxed in mid-August when the Warsaw Pact units, having completed maneuvers on Czechoslovak territory, left the country—only to immediately turn around and return.
Monday, 5 June 1967. Israel attacks Egypt and annihilates its air force, thereby opening the way towards its crushing victory in the Six Day War. At that time the crisis in the Middle East, which got under way when Egypt’s ruler Abel Nasser sent his forces into the Sinai, had been ongoing for three weeks. The climax came on the weekend of 2-3 June when many Israeli reservists were suddenly sent home on leave and could be seen on the beaches of Tel Aviv, thus creating the impression that war was not imminent and might indeed not break out at all. A bad error, as it turned out.
Needless to say the Soviets, as they then were, were aware of these precedents. The more so because they themselves had made use of the technique. And the more so because they were historically-minded; starting already in 1917, no army has ever put a greater emphasis on military history than the Red-Russian one. Starting with the Biblical Israelites’ capture of the city of Ai, and proceeding through the Greek one of Troy, any number of commanders and armies have owed their success to this simple trick.
As I’ve written before, whether Putin is going to invade Ukraine I have no idea. I do, however, suggest that two points be kept in mind. First, beware of any Russian troop withdrawal—that may well be the most dangerous moment of all. And second, no deception without self-deception.